By: Brittany Flaherty Theis
Brian Wojcicki is an attorney at Whitt Law’s office in Springfield. Mr. Wojcicki focuses his practice on legislative counseling, as well as civil and administrative litigation. Below are his 2016 Illinois general election predictions and explanations.
You can view the spreadsheet of information prepared by Mr. Wojcicki here: Mr. Wojcicki’s 2016 Illinois General Election Predictions
Of the 158 state legislative districts on the ballot for this general election cycle, candidates are slated by both major parties in 61 state legislative districts; however, not all of those 61 districts are truly competitive or targeted for purposes of changing party representation.
In order to determine where either party may be vulnerable of “losing a seat” or confident they can “pick up a seat,” generic party identity and campaign spending can be informative when evaluating each district. The spreadsheet (available in pdf format through the link above) consolidates this information over the 41 races that may have been considered competitive or targeted by one of the major parties during this general election cycle.
These 41 races can be further pared down by:
- Reviewing generic party identity in the 2014 gubernatorial election year;
- Assuming a democratic shift in the electorate for most districts north of Interstate 64 in this presidential election year;
- Tracking party and interest group contributions over the past four months; and
- Confirming where either state party has placed paid staff.
Based on an evaluation of the numbers, there appears to be approximately 16 races of consequence for purposes of predicting party strength or weakness in the 100th General Assembly. Readers may draw their own conclusions.
Spreadsheet Categories
The spreadsheet is organized numerically by legislative district, listing the candidates from each major party. The footnotes further detail the background of the candidates and provide links to where the spreadsheet information was found.
The “2014 General Election” columns reflect how the electorate in each district voted in 2014 for the offices of Governor, Comptroller and Treasurer. The Attorney General and Secretary of State races were not included because of the unique nature of the winning candidates having crossover party appeal.
The “2016 General Election Cycle Money” columns reflect contributions and expenditures over the past four months.
- “Q3 In-Kinds” includes all in-kind contributions to that candidate from July 1st through September 30th of this year as well as any in-kind contributions over $1,000 from October 1st through October 14th;
- “Q3 Ind. Exp.” is an estimate of independent expenditures spent on behalf of that candidate from July 1st through September 30th of this year and was largely taken from data compiled by the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform (http://www.illinoissunshine.org/);
- “Q3 Exp.” includes all expenditures by the candidate’s political action committee from July 1st through September 30th of this year, and does not include mere transfers from that candidate’s political action committee to another political action committee; and
- “Q4 CoH” includes the cash on hand in that candidate’s political action committee as of October 1st as well as any contributions over $1,000 to that committee from October 1st through October 14th.
The “Payroll” columns reflect whether either major party provided an in-kind contribution over $1,000 for individual staff salaries during the third quarter (Q3—from July 1st through September 30th of this year) and whether such contribution was provided during the fourth quarter (Q4— from October 1st through October 14th).
For more information regarding the content of 2016 Illinois general election predictions spreadsheet or Mr. Wojcicki’s legislative counseling work, please contact Whitt Law Attorney Brian P. Wojcicki. You can also follow Mr. Wojcicki on Twitter at https://twitter.com/bpwojcicki.
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